Predicting turning points in the South African economy

Predicting Turning Points

This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points. *While working on this paper, all three ...

Turn, Turn, Turn: Predicting Turning Points in Economic Activity

strength and duration, that have, so far, characterized economic activity. January 31, 2001: Preliminary real GDP growth for the fourth quarter is barely above 1 percent, more than 4 percentage points below what is was only two quarters before and about 7 percentage points below its level in the third quarter of 1999. Much of the press, and some forecasters, predict that the first quarter of 20...

The saving behaviour of the South African economy

The Effect of South African Geopolitical Position in the Development of Cinema in South Africa

This paper will discuss about the role of the geopolitical location of South Africa in the development of movie and the cinema industry in this country. Despite of bringing ci-nema to South Africa by white Europeans, but the development of this phenomenon is mostly due to the geopolitical position of this country. It is interesting to know that ci-nema reached Africa in much the same time as it...

Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach

This paper develops an estimated hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4. Based on a recursive esti...